In 1997, Asian crisis, my scholarship research
In 2001, IT dotcom
In 2008, Global Financial Crisis
I start gaining confidence after:
- I predicted emerging property boom between 2009-2012
- I predicted advanced economies property boom starting from 2013 due to imbalance of rate, higher rate in emerging vs lower rate in advanced countries, closed shadow banking gap, plus several others like momentum, density on bonds belly, and some affordability measure. I predicted this in early 2012, before PIMCO started to post their rising star in 2013.
My next 5 years oracle:
- Property in advanced countries may continue to rise with some minor risk when their rate starts to rebound.
- Commodities shares in emerging countries should start to rise since mid of this year, hedging their under pressured property investment due to higher rate.
- RBA would start to raise rate in 1 – 2 years with no limit on how long. When rate starts to increase, I may consider to fix my mortgage to 5 years.
- Inflation would be very high between 2015-2018, ended with a bang in 2018.
- Unlike GFC 2008, I would disagree that the risk of rate rebound is too high. Indeed I believe opportunity may arise.
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