Is the bubble going to pop up soon?
Are the funds/banks not healthy?
How is next year inflation?
How’s the wealth is being transferred?
Will we see any bankruptcy next year?
I’m still more optimistic than average economists but we should aware there will be rocky roads ahead, just like before easing, a normal higher volatility.
Based on arguments above, I reiterate my views few months ago. Last October horror wasn’t able to derail my views.
- I have not seen any major recession risk. Federal Reserve still holds large amount of reserve and public debt is increasing faster than ever. People may wonder why gold is not yet performing. It’s due to strong US divergence.
- Democrat is expected to prefer infrastructure bill while republican is expected to prefer tax cut. Put them in balance in midterm will do both.
- Normal higher volatility is back to a decade ago before easing put in place. Asset is expected to perform normally within higher rate.
- I would expect more debt, inflation and higher volatility that will support inflation sensitive play.
- More public debt auctions should be new normal and inflation will always be in focus. Economy will service more debt.
- Only selected asset will perform.
- Big players as usual will always try to hide inflation from hitting themselves, but it will pop up in this and there. R-star is expected to rise in stronger countries. Lower or negative R-star will continue to haunt emerging.
9 After they had heard the king, they went on their way, and the star they had seen when it rose went ahead of them until it stopped over the place where the child was. Merry Christmas!
It’s true past performance never dictates future return. However wealth transfer can dictates future return better because market participants have less choice.
It’s just my own opinion and not in any chance of financial advise.]]>